Toronto home prices are down about 5% year over year. What September 2026 TRREB data, rates and inflation mean for real estate investors.
Toronto's housing market cooled again in September, and for patient investors with financing in place, that may be the most interesting news of the year.
What the September 2026 TRREB data shows
City of Toronto home sales fell to 1,937 in September, down about 5% from a year earlier. The average selling price slipped to $1,034,320, also about 5% lower (TRREB Market Watch, September 2026). The city's MLS® HPI composite benchmark was down 3.8% year over year.
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2025 and September 2026.
Across the GTA, months of inventory stood at 4.6 and the sales-to-new-listings ratio at 37.8% (12-month moving averages, TRREB). Historically, those conditions have favoured buyers.
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2025 and September 2026.
Seasonal and economic context
Fall usually brings a short burst of listings and sales before the December slowdown. This year, buyers are moving cautiously. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October 2025, and its next decision is October 28. Inflation rose to 3.1% in September (Statistics Canada), which could limit room for further rate cuts. TRREB points to "substantial pent-up demand," but notes buyers want confidence in their jobs and in future borrowing costs.
The investor takeaway
More choice and softer prices can mean stronger negotiating leverage, especially in the condo segment, where the average September price was $640,248 (TRREB). But carrying costs, rental competition and rate uncertainty remain real risks. Stress-test your numbers, and plan for a longer hold.
FAQ
Is now a good time to invest in Toronto real estate?
Current conditions favour buyers, with more inventory and softer prices. Whether it suits you depends on your financing, timeline and tolerance for negative cash flow.
Are Toronto home prices falling in 2026?
As of September 2026, the City of Toronto's average selling price was about 5% below a year earlier, according to TRREB. Past trends don't guarantee future prices.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 (released October 6, 2026)
- Bank of Canada, policy interest rate
- Statistics Canada CPI, September 2026 (via BNN Bloomberg)
Cover photo: Devine Clayton on Unsplash
This article is for general information only and is not financial, legal or tax advice. Statistics are from the sources cited and are believed reliable but not guaranteed. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
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